Working Papers

Impact of Pesticide Reduction Policies on the Economy and Environment in Quebec: Analysis of the EGC Model 

Abstract:    This paper examines the economic and environmental impacts of pesticide reduction policies in Quebec through a scenario of pesticide taxation, aimed at aligning the agricultural sector with the objectives of the Sustainable Agriculture Plan. The study is based on a computable general equilibrium model that disaggregates the agricultural sector into two sub-sectors: conventional agriculture and organic agriculture. The results show that pesticide taxation reduces agricultural production, farmers' profits, and consumption, due to rising prices of agricultural goods and imports in the conventional sector. However, this taxation promotes the adoption of organic agriculture, boosts consumption, imports, and exports in this sector. The reduction in pesticide use by Quebec farmers leads to a decrease in their productivity, benefiting other regions. Nevertheless, a similar tax on the importation of pesticide-intensive agricultural goods would increase production and profitability of crops in Quebec. Finally, the study highlights that economic and environmental benefits may arise depending on how the tax revenue is redistributed between organic farmers and households.

Work in Progress

Organic farming vs conventional farming: adoption, transition and profitability  joint with Komla Avoumatsodo 

Abstract: The Quebec farmers who left the organic agriculture sector in 2023 represent over 46% of new entrants. This article develops a dynamic theoretical model to study the profitability and transition between the organic agriculture sector and the conventional agriculture sector. Data indicate that the adoption of organic agriculture is positively correlated with the relative price between organic and conventional products, and negatively correlated with the relative yields of several crops. The model demonstrates that beyond taxes on pesticide use, a subsidy for transitioning farmers is necessary to facilitate the adoption of organic agriculture. Moreover, we have determined an optimal environmental tax on conventional goods, followed by the optimal area of conventional agriculture required to mitigate any long-term negative externality induced by conventional production through environmental regeneration. Finally, we will also examine the adoption and transition of farmers in an uncertain environment, due to the potential arrival of new pests.

Climate Change and Pesticide Reduction Policy in agriculture

Abstract: This paper examines the interaction between climate change and pesticide reduction policies in Quebec, focusing on their joint impacts on agricultural productivity and input use, such as pesticides and fertilizers. This study contributes to the literature by introducing crop-specific growing degree days, taking into account agricultural calendars and temperature thresholds. The findings reveal that using average temperature overestimates the climate change impact on agricultural yields by a factor of four compared to the growing degree days. We observe that temperature variations above the threshold positively affect crop yields during certain growth phases and influence pesticide use in the pre-planting phase. Farmers adapt their practices by adjusting their pesticide use to maximize yields, based on climate impacts on maximum yields and required input quantities. By simulating a tax on pesticide use, the study reveals that farmers’ adaptation to climate change reduces the effectiveness of reduction policies, as higher temperatures lead to increased pesticide use at certain crop stages, thereby mitigating the policy's effects. These results provide critical empirical insights for policymakers aiming to balance productivity and sustainability in the context of climate change.