Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and the Effectiveness of Pesticide Reduction Policies: Accounting for Adaptation
(Job Market Paper) , PDF
Abstract: This paper examines the interaction between climate change and pesticide reduction policies in Quebec, focusing on their joint impacts on agricultural productivity and input use, such as pesticides and fertilizers. This study contributes to the literature by introducing crop-specific growing degree days, taking into account agricultural calendars and temperature thresholds. The findings reveal that using average temperature overestimates the climate change impact on agricultural yields by a factor of four compared to the growing degree days. We observe that temperature variations above the threshold positively affect crop yields during certain growth phases and influence pesticide use in the pre-planting phase. Farmers adapt their practices by adjusting their pesticide use to maximize yields, based on climate impacts on maximum yields and required input quantities. By simulating a tax on pesticide use, the study reveals that farmers’ adaptation to climate change reduces the effectiveness of reduction policies, as higher temperatures lead to increased pesticide use at certain crop stages, thereby mitigating the policy's effects. These results provide critical empirical insights for policymakers aiming to balance productivity and sustainability in the context of climate change.
Impact of Pesticide Reduction Policies on the Economy and Environment in Quebec: Analysis of the EGC Model , PDF, joint with Charles Seguin
Abstract: This paper examines the economic and environmental impacts of pesticide reduction policies in Quebec through a scenario of pesticide taxation, aimed at aligning the agricultural sector with the objectives of the Sustainable Agriculture Plan. The study is based on a computable general equilibrium model that disaggregates the agricultural sector into two sub-sectors: conventional agriculture and organic agriculture. The results show that pesticide taxation reduces agricultural production, farmers' profits, and consumption, due to rising prices of agricultural goods and imports in the conventional sector. However, this taxation promotes the adoption of organic agriculture, boosts consumption, imports, and exports in this sector. The reduction in pesticide use by Quebec farmers leads to a decrease in their productivity, benefiting other regions. Nevertheless, a similar tax on the importation of pesticide-intensive agricultural goods would increase production and profitability of crops in Quebec. Finally, the study highlights that economic and environmental benefits may arise depending on how the tax revenue is redistributed between organic farmers and households.
Exit Dynamics in Quebec’s Organic Farming, PDF, joint with Komla Avoumatsodo
Abstract: This paper examines the dynamics of adoption and retention in Quebec’s organic farming sector and their policy implications. Using certification records from Portail Bio Québec, we document strong entry but high early exit particularly within the first five years which constrains net growth. The results show that survival varies systematically with farm age, certification body, and product type. To interpret these patterns, we develop a dynamic model of farmers’ regime-switching decisions, calibrated to observed exit rates, which identifies two producer types: impatient farmers, who tend to exit early in response to idiosyncratic pest shocks, and patient, forward-looking farmers, who remain in organic production over time despite such risks. Policy simulations indicate that a post-certification subsidy of 100$ per hectare reduces first-year exits by 55.4%, while an 80% pesticide tax lowers them by 43%. In contrast, a 1% increase in pest severity raises first-year exit rates by 25%. Overall, the findings suggest that long-term retention depends not only on financial incentives but also on behavioral heterogeneity and ecological risk. Effective policy design should therefore combine transitional support with measures that strengthen resilience and favor forward-looking producers.